微波辐射计在对流天气预报中的应用     

蔡奕萍  袁志扬  李婵珠  黄锋 《广东气象》2021,43(1)

选取2016—2018年每年4—9月份RPG-HATPRO型42通道微波辐射计观测的不稳定指数参数(K、SI、CAPE、LI)及水汽参数(IWV、LWP),研究得出各参数触发雷雨大风、短时强降水的阈值条件为K>37℃、SI<-1℃、IWV>60 kg/m~2、LWP>400 g/m~2,而LI、CAPE无法对3种天气类型进行区分。利用费舍判别分析方法,将不稳定指数参数及水汽参数作为预报因子,建立预报方程并进行检验,结果表明:二级判别方程预测对流天气的准确率为76%,可以作为预报对流天气的辅助工具;多级判别方程不能很好地区分3种天气类型,但将其作为修正后的二级判别方程使用,能提高对流天气的测中概率。  相似文献   

Plant drought tolerance trait is the key parameter in improving the modeling of terrestrial transpiration in arid and semi-arid regions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Xintao Liu  Xingjie Lu  Shulei Zhang  Zhongwang Wei  Nan Wei  Shupeng Zhang  Hua Yuan  Wei Shangguan  Shaofeng Liu  Jianfeng Huang  Lu Li  Xiulan Ye  Jinxuan Zhou  Wenke Hu  Yongjiu Dai 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(1):35-41

陆面过程蒸腾作用的模拟制约着天气,气候降水预测的精确度.近几十年来,为了更好地描述植被蒸腾的水力约束,陆面过程模式发展了基于植物性状的植物水力胁迫方案.然而,我们对于植物性状在蒸腾模拟中的地位仍然缺乏了解,植物性状对蒸腾的重要性仍需进一步量化.本研究利用Morris方法评估植物性状参数在通用陆面模式植物水力胁迫方案(CoLM-P₅₀HS)中的重要性,针对17种植物性状,筛选出最为重要的:耐旱性状(P₅₀),气孔性状,和光合作用性状.在12个FLUXNET站点中,参数的重要性由归一化敏感度来衡量.P₅₀的重要性随着降水的减少而增加,而气孔性状和光合作用性状的重要性则随着降水的减少而减少.在干旱或半干旱地区,P₅₀比气孔性状和光合作用性状更重要,这意味着当植物经常经历干旱时,水力安全策略比植物生长策略更关键.而耐旱性状的巨大变异性进一步暗示了多种植物水力安全策略的共存.忽视P₅₀的变异性可能会对陆面过程模式蒸腾作用的模拟造成严重误差.因此,为了更好地表示植物水力功能的变异性,需要增加对耐旱性状的观测并耦合到陆面模式中.  相似文献   

A Positivity-preserving Conservative Semi-Lagrangian Multi-moment Global Transport Model on the Cubed Sphere     

Jie TANG  Chungang CHEN  Xueshun SHEN  Feng XIAO  Xingliang LI 《大气科学进展》2021,38(9):1460-1473

A positivity-preserving conservative semi-Lagrangian transport model by multi-moment finite volume method has been developed on the cubed-sphere grid. Two kinds of moments(i.e., point values(PV moment) at cell interfaces and volume integrated average(VIA moment) value) are defined within a single cell. The PV moment is updated by a conventional semi-Lagrangian method, while the VIA moment is cast by the flux form formulation to assure the exact numerical conservation. Different from the spatial approximation used in the CSL2(conservative semi-Lagrangian scheme with second order polynomial function) scheme, a monotonic rational function which can effectively remove non-physical oscillations is reconstructed within a single cell by the PV moments and VIA moment. To achieve exactly positive-definite preserving, two kinds of corrections are made on the original conservative semi-Lagrangian with rational function(CSLR)scheme. The resulting scheme is inherently conservative, non-negative, and allows a Courant number larger than one.Moreover, the spatial reconstruction can be performed within a single cell, which is very efficient and economical for practical implementation. In addition, a dimension-splitting approach coupled with multi-moment finite volume scheme is adopted on cubed-sphere geometry, which benefitsthe implementation of the 1 D CSLR solver with large Courant number.The proposed model is evaluated by several widely used benchmark tests on cubed-sphere geometry. Numerical results show that the proposed transport model can effectively remove nonphysical oscillations and preserve the numerical nonnegativity, and it has the potential to transport the tracers accurately in a real atmospheric model.  相似文献   

CWRF对青藏高原气温和降水模拟效果的综合评估          下载免费PDF全文

徐蓉蓉  梁信忠  段明铿 《大气科学学报》2021,44(1):104-117

利用CWRF(Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model)对中国区域气候的31 a多物理集合模拟试验,分析了该模式对青藏高原气温和降水的模拟效果及其对水平分辨率和物理过程参数化方案的敏感性。结果表明:1)CWRF降尺度全面改善了全球模式对高原气温和降水的模拟,使气温年循环的均方根误差减小近1℃,月降水量年循环的均方根误差减小10~40 mm,同时显著提高了各月气温和降水与实测资料年际变化的相关系数,最高提升0.6;2)模式分辨率对降水模拟有显著影响,不同分辨率模拟降水差异高达60 mm(54%),模拟偏差随分辨率提高先降低后上升,转折在30 km左右;3)物理过程参数化方案对气温和降水模拟影响显著,不同方案模拟的各月平均气温相差1~4℃,夏季各月降水量相差20~100 mm,其中对气温模拟影响最大的是辐射方案,对降水影响最大的是积云方案。本文为CWRF局地优化对物理参数化及水平分辨率等如何选择提供了依据。  相似文献   

一次模态变异中尺度对流系统的模拟与分析          下载免费PDF全文

汪兰  张述文  柴旺  任星露 《热带气象学报》2022,38(5):671-679

利用NCEP FNL分析资料及南京多普勒雷达观测,借助WRF模式,对2017年8月19日发生在长江中下游地区的一次中尺度对流系统(MCS)进行模拟和诊断分析。此次MCS组织模态PS(Parallel Stratiform)型和TS(Trailing Stratiform)型共存,开始为带状结构,最后演变为强弓状飑线。气旋切变和低空急流是此次过程的重要影响系统,而午后强烈发展的地面锋触发了此次强对流。在垂直风切变和冷池共同作用下,西侧初始对流发展为PS型模态,东侧发展为TS型模态。由于PS型模态的中低层垂直风切变发生转向,导致其消散。TS型模态附近冷池和垂直风切变相配合,且在后向入流(Rear Inflow Jets,RIJ)作用下发展成为强弓状飑线;RIJ受中低层涡旋对影响而发展增强,其中气旋式涡旋主要由涡度方程中拉伸项决定,而反气旋式涡旋则主要由倾侧项决定。   相似文献   

显式完全平方守恒差分格式在近岸海流数值模拟中的应用     

王斌  季仲贞  李荣凤 《热带海洋学报》1994,(3)

用显式完全平方守恒差分格式及其改进分解算法对南海月平均流和海面起伏进行了数值模拟，与隐式完全平方守恒差分格式相比，计算时间可省３—５倍，具有良好的时间效益，而且，其计算效果不比隐式完全平方守恒差分格式差。因此，显式完全平方守恒差分格式及其改进分解算法具有良好的实用价值。  相似文献   

A Compact Explicit Difference Scheme of High Accuracy for Extended Boussinesq Equations     

周俊陶林建国  谢志华 《中国海洋工程》2007,21(3):507-514

Presented here is a compact explicit difference scheme of high accuracy for solving the extended Boussinesq equations.For time discretization,a three-stage explicit Runge-Kutta method with TVD property is used at predicting stage,a cubic spline function is adopted at correcting stage,which made the time discretization accuracy up to fourth order;For spatial discretization,a three-point explicit compact difference scheme with arbitrary order accuracy is employed.The extended Boussinesq equations derived by Beji and Nadaoka are solved by the proposed scheme.The numerical results agree well with the experimental data.At the same time,the comparisons of the two numerical results between the present scheme and low accuracy difference method are made,which further show the necessity of using high accuracy scheme to solve the extended Boussinesq equations.As a valid sample,the wave propagation on the rectangular step is formulated by the present scheme,the modelled results are in better agreement with the experimental data than those of Kittitanasuan.  相似文献   

Numerical study of the summer temperature decrease induced by the enhancement of estuarine circulation in Fukuoka Bay     

Kazuhiro Aoki  Atsuhiko Isobe 《Journal of Oceanography》2006,62(2):207-217

The Princeton Ocean Model with realistic bottom topography has been used to investigate the summer temperature decrease in the past 25 years in Fukuoka Bay. The vertical mixing of the model is expressed by a scheme that effectively includes the influences of interannual variations of tidal currents and wind. The results show that the historical temperature decrease in summer has been caused by tidal currents and wind weakening in the past 25 years in Fukuoka Bay. The weakening of tidal currents and wind gives rise to weakening of the vertical mixing, and to enhancement of the estuarine circulation in the bay. The enhancement of the estuarine circulation activates the inflow of open-ocean water toward Fukuoka Bay. Coastal water in summer has therefore tended to be colder and more saline in the past 25 years. This interannual variation in coastal waters is called “open-oceanization” in this study. On the basis of the numerical model, it is anticipated that the temperature will decrease by 0.2°C in the next 25 years in Fukuoka Bay if the tide and wind weaken persistently as in the present bay.  相似文献   

北部湾三维风生流及密度流模拟   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  

夏华永  李树华  侍茂崇 《海洋学报》2001,23(6):11-23

将Casulli差分格式引入三维物理海洋模型计算，模拟了北部湾风生流及密度流。模拟结果表明，夏季西南季风在北部湾导致一个顺时针环流，夏季海水密度梯度导致一个逆时针方向的环流，密度流明显强于风生流；冬季东北寒潮导致一个逆时针环流。模拟结果不支持北部湾夏季为一顺时针环流、冬季为逆时针环流的传统结论，而支持终年为逆时针环流的观点。  相似文献   

胶州湾泛亚码头疏浚方案优选及悬浮物影响预测     

李铁军  孙英兰  刘伟峰  付会 《海洋湖沼通报》2007,(4):144-150

采用有限元分步杂交方法,在已建潮流场的基础上,建立了胶州湾疏浚物悬浮泥沙的二维输运-扩散模型,并应用于胶州湾前湾港区泛亚码头工程疏浚区的疏浚物输运扩散的数值模拟预测。根据预测结果分析了泛亚码头疏浚区施工期间悬浮泥沙对附近海域水环境和生态环境的影响,并对不同的疏浚方案进行了优选。  相似文献